COLUMBIA, S.C. — The battle to succeed Governor Henry McMaster is heating up as two new polls and a finalized debate schedule provide a clearer picture of the 2026 Republican primary. While the field remains crowded, a “Big Three” has emerged, with Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, Attorney General Alan Wilson, and U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace locked in a high-stakes game of musical chairs for the top spot.
The Polling Divide: Incumbency vs. Federal Profile
Recent data from the Trafalgar Group suggests that statewide service is paying off. In their latest survey of likely GOP voters, Pamela Evette leads the pack at 21.9%, with Alan Wilson trailing by less than two points at 20.1%. Nancy Mace follows in third at 17.3%.
However, a separate poll from the South Carolina Policy Council (SCPC) offers a different perspective, placing Mace in the lead at 18%, while Wilson and Evette are tied for second at 12%.
| Candidate | SCPC Poll (Feb ’26) | Trafalgar Poll (Jan ’26) |
| Nancy Mace | 18% | 17.3% |
| Pamela Evette | 12% | 21.9% |
| Alan Wilson | 12% | 20.1% |
| Ralph Norman | 11% | 9.8% |
| Josh Kimbrell | 4% | 1.9% |
| Undecided | 43% | 29% |
The discrepancy between the polls underscores a volatile electorate. While Trafalgar shows a more decided voter base, the SCPC poll suggests that as many as 43% of Republicans have yet to pick a side, leaving the door wide open for a late-stage surge.
Debate Schedule Announced
Voters will soon have the chance to see these numbers tested on stage. The South Carolina Republican Party has officially set the schedule for a three-part debate series, providing a critical platform for trailing candidates to gain ground and for frontrunners to defend their records.
The sanctioned debates are scheduled as follows:
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March 17: Coastal Carolina University in Conway.
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April 21: College of Charleston.
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May 26: Wofford College in Spartanburg.
These televised events are expected to focus heavily on the issues currently driving the polls, including the proposed elimination of the state income tax and significant reforms to the state’s judicial selection process.
The Road to June
With the primary officially set for June 9, 2026, candidates are racing to clear the 50% threshold. Given the current distribution of support across five major candidates, political analysts suggest a single-ballot victory is unlikely.
If no candidate secures a majority on June 9, the top two finishers will head to a high-pressure runoff election on June 23. With nearly a third of the electorate still weighing their options, the upcoming March debate in Conway could serve as the ultimate tiebreaker.
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